Retirement Income Longevity Calculator
This calculator estimates how many years a portfolio might last when it is drawn down by a steady annual withdrawal — optionally rising with inflation — while the remaining balance grows at an assumed return. It answers the simple question, "roughly how long could the money last?" It is a directional educational illustration, not a forecast.
Open the Calculator →Educational only: This tool produces a rough illustration based on steady assumptions the user enters. It is not financial, tax, or legal advice, not a forecast, and not a recommendation of any withdrawal rate or strategy. It applies a single steady return and inflation rate that real markets never produce, and it ignores taxes, fees, and sequence-of-returns risk. Customers should speak with a financial or tax advisor before making decisions. Goldco does not offer tax or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Quick Answer: What This Calculator Estimates
A retirement portfolio is drawn down by withdrawals and, at the same time, grown by investment returns. Whether it lasts depends on the balance between the two. This calculator takes a starting balance, an annual withdrawal, an assumed annual return, and an optional inflation adjustment to the withdrawal, then steps through the years to estimate how long the balance would last before reaching zero. If the assumed return is high enough relative to the withdrawal, the balance may never run out under these steady assumptions, and the tool says so. Because it uses one fixed return and one fixed inflation rate, the result is a directional illustration for discussion, not a prediction of how long real savings will last.
Portfolio Runout Estimator
Enter a starting balance, a first-year annual withdrawal, an assumed annual return, and whether withdrawals rise with inflation. The tool estimates how many years the balance would last. All figures are illustrative estimates based on the inputs only.
The tool steps year by year: it applies the withdrawal and the assumed return until the balance would reach zero, up to a 60-year cap. If the balance grows faster than it is drawn down, it may not run out under these steady assumptions, which the tool reports rather than showing a year count. The estimate excludes taxes, fees, required minimum distributions, Social Security or other income, and sequence-of-returns risk.
What Determines How Long a Portfolio Lasts?
Three forces set portfolio longevity: how much is withdrawn, how much the remaining balance earns, and how fast withdrawals rise with inflation. A widely discussed starting point is the 4% guideline, which Charles Schwab describes as a first-year withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio, adjusted for inflation in later years — while noting the rule is rigid, assumes a specific portfolio and time horizon, and does not automatically respond to market performance (Charles Schwab). This calculator lets a user test any withdrawal rate, return, and inflation adjustment rather than assuming one rule.
The retirement portfolio longevity guide explains these trade-offs and the planning tools — cash buffers, flexible withdrawals, and diversification — in depth. This tool is the interactive runout companion to that guide.
Why the Steady-Return Assumption Matters
A single steady return is the biggest simplification here, and it is important to understand its limits. Real returns vary year to year, and the order of returns matters during withdrawals: poor returns early in retirement, combined with withdrawals, can permanently reduce a portfolio even if the long-run average is acceptable. The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College explains that early negative returns have a more severe effect because the portfolio is reduced by both losses and withdrawals (Center for Retirement Research at Boston College). This runout tool does not capture that; the sequence-of-returns risk calculator illustrates it directly. Reading the two together gives a fuller picture than either alone.
Customers should speak to a financial or tax advisor before making decisions about withdrawal rates, asset allocation, or retirement timing. Goldco does not offer tax or legal advice.
Compare the full toolkit
This is one of several educational calculators covering fees, RMDs, allocation, break-even, sequence risk, and more.
See All Calculators →Frequently Asked Questions
What does the retirement income longevity calculator do?
It estimates how many years a portfolio might last when a starting balance is drawn down by a steady annual withdrawal that can rise with inflation, while the remaining balance grows at an assumed return. It is a directional educational illustration, not a forecast.
How is this different from the portfolio longevity guide?
The guide explains the concepts — the 4% rule, sequence risk, and cash buffers. This tool is a simple runout calculator that turns a user's own numbers into an estimated number of years until the balance would reach zero under steady assumptions.
Does this predict how long my money will actually last?
No. It applies a single steady return and a steady inflation rate, which real markets never produce. It ignores taxes, fees, and sequence-of-returns risk. Actual longevity will differ, so the result is a rough illustration to discuss with a professional.
Why does inflation shorten how long savings last?
If withdrawals rise each year to keep pace with inflation, the dollar amount taken out grows over time, which draws the balance down faster than a fixed withdrawal would. The tool lets users test both.
What is sequence-of-returns risk and does this model it?
Sequence risk is the danger that poor returns early in retirement, combined with withdrawals, permanently reduce a portfolio. This runout tool uses a steady return and does not model it; the separate sequence-of-returns calculator illustrates that effect.
Methodology and Limitations
Methodology. The tool steps forward one year at a time. Each year the withdrawal is taken (before or after growth, per the timing selector) and the remaining balance grows at the assumed return; the withdrawal then rises by the inflation adjustment for the next year. Years are counted until the balance would reach zero, capped at 60 years. The first-year withdrawal rate is the first withdrawal divided by the starting balance. If the balance never depletes within 60 years under the assumptions, the tool reports that rather than a year count.
Assumptions and limitations. Returns and inflation are steady, user-entered assumptions, not forecasts, and real returns vary and can be negative. The tool does not model taxes, investment fees, required minimum distributions, Social Security or pension income, changing spending, or sequence-of-returns risk, all of which affect real longevity. A steady average return can materially overstate longevity compared with a volatile path that hits losses early. All inputs are assumptions chosen by the user. This tool is educational only, is not a suitability assessment, and should support discussion with a qualified professional rather than serve as the basis for a decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Tool reviewed and edited by Daniel M. — editor, 401kToGoldIRA.org. Educational only; not tax or legal advice. Concepts sourced to Charles Schwab and the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
